Thursday, April 28, 2011

On rarities and exceptions

We see it happen every day. A smoker decides that since his grandfather smoked unil the day he died, at 96 years old, then it must be alright for his health, though many die every year from lung cancer due to their smoking habbits. Someone dies in a car crash, their fastened seatbelt the cause of their untimely death and suddenly noone should be wearing theirs, though they have saved many lives in the past. An obese woman sees a seemingly healthy large person and decides to stop watching her weight, though it has been proved time and time again that being dangerously overweight causes many health risks. Why is it that something can be demonstrated a thousand, ten thousand times, and as soon as one situation, one contraciting incident occurs, everone's ideas change? Doesn't anyone understand the meaning of a rare exception?

 I can't say that I don't understand it. I am also part of this odd human phenomenon. For example, restaurant A and B are very similar in food selection. Restaurant A has a MUCH higher satisfacion rate than restaurant B. However, one negative experience with restaurant A, such as cold soup or poor service and I am likely to head to restaurant B the next time around. "What are all these people talking about?" I will think to myself as I leave restaurant A. "The data they collected for the satisfaction rate must have been falsified. The people were bribed, or they all have terrible taste!" Luckily, I am accutely aware of many of the tricks my own brain plays on me due to extensive research and field study (googling it, then watching someone do something similar one day at the mall) and so I try my best to stop and truly rationalize.

My advice? Don't fall for misconceptions. Find the fallacies, the myths, and think about your own interpretation of things. Are you believing something for all the wrong reasons?

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